Friday, May 22, 2009

Hunting in Packs - first results of live tests

The biggest issue for most people meeting one of our robots for the first time is "won't all the robots do the same thing at the same time?"

The answer is yes and no. Through a range of factors all robots behave slightly differently. Some of these factors are designed in, others are a consequence of lopsidity (a wonderful word borrowed from an Australian engineer I once worked with at Broken Hill).

At the moment I have turned off the designed in features that inhibit running in packs to better explore the components introduced by lopsidity. For the time being lopsidity appears to be doing a great job at keeping multiple robots behaving differently.

In fact it has come as a real surprise just how different the actual behaviour is in practice. The pack sizes are still tiny in comparison to what our projections indicate they will work at, but when just two robots are started at the same moment, looking at the same 100 stock the results one month later are startlingly different. As projected, the performance (trading gains) are in line with the gain trajectory, but the individual stock picks and entry and exit points are remarkably different.

So far I have managed to isolate a number of factors that fit into the general lopsidity category. Each has a role to play but I shall have to generate some additional analysis tools to explore these fully.

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